Toby or not to be

Measuring Competitive Balance

I play fantasy basketball. Yes I realize it is akin to Dungeon and Dragons for jocks, but I have no shame. Did I mention that I have read Twilight, but I regress, and I just lost my credibility for all topics sports. Let me try to earn that back. 

In the league, genealogically known as the Harris Ballers, it was brought to the attention of the league by Guy on a Longhorn! that

- There are 5 teams in the top half of the leader boards that are within 1 game of each other

- There are 4 teams in the bottom half of the leader boards that are within 3 games of each other

- Besides first and last place (you know who you are), everyone appears to be very evenly matched so far.

What Guy is saying is that the league is experiencing competitive balance, most notably when measuring competitive balance using the standard deviation of winning percentage. More specifically, the following equation:

Simple enough for all you stats geeks. Here are the league standings:

TEAM	W	L	T	PCT	GB
Stu- Boyz	63	37	0	.630	--
Gotham's Reckoning	54	42	4	.560	7
Not the Batum of the league	53	44	3	.545	8.5
More Wins than the Jazz	53	45	2	.540	9
Eagletown Farmboys	53	45	2	.540	9
Wenatchee Skookums	53	46	1	.535	9.5
Guy On A Longhorn!	50	46	4	.520	11
SR Puak Chomneah	48	50	2	.490	14
Los Conquistadors	45	49	6	.480	15
Wichikansistan Shazam	45	52	3	.465	16.5
Gladiators Win	41	56	3	.425	20.5
Flying Tortilla Chips	26	72	2	.270	36

Thus the standard deviation of winning percentage is approximately = .085

How does this compare to other leagues historically? First, we need to standardize it using what is called the Null-Scully measure of standard deviation of winning percentage. Simple equation, just divide the previous equation by .500/(square root of the number of games).

Meaning that the standardized winning percentage for the league is 1.71

Compared other sports

	the standardized winning percentage
MLB	1.69
NFL	1.66
NBA	2.71

So our fantasy bball league seems comparable to MLB.

But who cares about how close all the losers are? All that matters is the championship, and that seems to be already determined.

So thanks for making us losers feel like we are in good company. You have done a lot to make my day way better, about as much as that parking ticket improved my day. 

Applying sports econ to fantasy football

Sit down and pull out a piece of paper, class is in session. Today’s lesson is about competitive balance. We hear this terminology a lot and we have no idea what it means or if it is even a good thing. Let’s face it, we all want a chance to win the championship but each year there are 11 of us who deserved to be called losers. And looking at the season at the half way point, there are four teams that have a legitimate shot at winning. The undefeated Herdsmen, Ladies dig football (and handing out loses to a bunch of middle aged has been dudes), Pat man, and Kronk th Gronk. (You can break into our Sesame Street one of these is not like the other, but you all know it to be true #winningattitude #don’twastemyflavor #that’showiroll #dealwithit.)

But let me introduce a new measure of competitive balance to all you students. It is based on a little subject called statistics. It is simple enough, measure the standard deviation of winning percentage. You want an equation, I got that too.

Calculating the standard deviation of winning percentage this year shows that the Pac 12 division (std dev of wpct = .228) is much more balanced than the Big 12 (std dev of wpct = .305).

Comparing this to other sports leagues, the NBA is the most unbalanced sport with a NS standard deviation of winning percentage of 2.71. NFL and MLB have a measurement of 1.66 and 1.69 respectively.  

So what it the purpose of this post? I just want to let Blazers and Snipers know that you’re doing okay. In fact it can be argued that you are better than the Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Yucks, and the Jacksonville Jaguars.  #cheerup #itcouldbeworse

Paying College Athletes

Let's not be naive, college athletes are getting paid. While they may not be getting an hourly wage or bimonthly paychecks, they are receiving benefits for what they do. These include non-monetary benefits like tuition, room and board, health insurance, and on the job training (coaching). Some even receive monetary benefits in the form of stipends.

Often you hear hear the repeated call to the top college athletes more because they produce more revenue for the university. Once you start providing actual wages to student-athletes there are many issues that need to be dealt with. Taxes, Title IX, strikes, and the continual incentive to receive illegal payments.

So what is the solution? A former agent who admittedly paid student-athletes illegally has a solution. It seems simple and merits consideration. Here is the Link.

How to win a Super Bowl

With Super Bowl weekend fast approaching, I have thought what Indianapolis do to win the bid to host the Big Game. Jerry Jones built a $1 billion stadium with the sports world's largest big screen TV, and as a result was awarded the Super Bowl. But not every city can build a Texas-sized stadium, so what do they do to win the Super Bowl?

These two articles provide interesting insight into what cities have done in the recent years:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/sports/football/super-bowl-eighth-graders-helped-indianapolis-land-game.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-a-super-bowl-city-is-chosen.html

Super Bowl Ratings

So you wanted the Harbaugh Bowl? While sibling rivalries are really fun to put on a national stage, is that what the suits at the National Football League office wanted? If this was the NBA or MLB, the conspiracy theorists would be shouting from the tops of very tall buildings. And people might lend an ear to them, but conspiracy theorists have no room at the table in the NFL. While the NBA or MLB rely heavily on the matchups in the championship series to drive TV ratings, the NFL does not rely on the matchups to drive the ratings.

The Neilson Company shows that the most watched television shows of all-time, and the recent Super Bowls top the list.

Program	Date	Network	Avg. # of Viewers (000)
Super Bowl XLV	February 6, 2011	FOX	111,010
Super Bowl XLIV	February 7, 2010	CBS	106,476
M*A*S*H Special	February 28, 1983	CBS	105,970
Super Bowl XLIII	February 1, 2009	NBC	98,732
Super Bowl XLII	February 3, 2008	FOX	97,448
Super Bowl XXX	January 28, 1996	NBC	94,076

The Giants vs. Patriots matchup in 2008 was understandably a record setting matchup. The Patriots were looking to become the first team to finish an entire season undefeated since the 1972 Dolphins. They had just beaten the Giants in the last week of the regular season. Tom Brady was striving for perfection. But in his way was Peyton’s little brother. It became the most viewed Super Bowl of all time.

The next year could be argued was a down year in terms of media markets making the Super Bowl. The Cardinals representing the (602) are the 15^th largest media market. Pittsburgh is the 23^rd largest market, nothing like the previous year with NY (1^st) and Boston (9^th). But that game set higher records than the previous year’s game.

In 2010, a couple other small market teams faced each other. Imagine the ratings in the NBA Finals if the Pacers played the Hornets. Talk about a media nightmare. But the Colts vs. Saints set another record of viewership based for a Super Bowl. In fact, this game became the most watched television program of all time.

In 2011, in $1 billion Jerry World (also known as Cowboy Stadium), a new record was set. The matchup between the Green Bay Packers (118^th in media market size) played the Pittsburgh Steelers. Again, another record.

Why is it that the NFL can continually post record setting TV ratings? The NFL differs between the two franchises by sharing all media revenues equally across teams. This allows these small market teams, often historic franchises, to compete with the large market franchises. The NBA and MLB allow teams to sign exclusive media deals in addition to league wide contracts. Thus the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets capture huge revenues from media rights while other teams based in small markets are left struggling for local media revenues. As such, these leagues need large market teams to make the championship games to capture the television ratings. But not the NFL. And because of the number of viewers who watch the big game, we all can enjoy the ads.